Meta is building a standalone prediction markets app, code-named "Arena," according to the New York Times (as reported via Techmeme). The app would let people forecast the outcomes of future events — but with a notable twist: sources say it would probably rely on video game-like points rather than real-money wagers.
The Times reports that Arena is being designed to operate independently of Facebook and Instagram, rather than as a feature buried inside Meta's existing platforms. That separation suggests Meta sees prediction markets as their own product category, not just an add-on.
Engadget reports that the effort is coming from the top: Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly directed Meta to build its own prediction market.
Prediction markets let users bet on how real-world questions will resolve — elections, sports, economic data and more. The space has drawn growing attention, and according to the New York Times, Arena could compete for users' attention with Polymarket, one of the better-known players in the field.
The choice to lean on points instead of cash is significant. Real-money prediction markets sit in a legally contested gray zone in much of the United States, where they can resemble gambling. By using game-style points, Meta could sidestep some of that regulatory friction while still tapping into the same appeal — the fun of forecasting and competing against others.
It's worth stressing that these are early, unconfirmed reports based on anonymous sources, and Meta has not publicly detailed the product. Plans like these can change or be shelved before launch.
Why it matters: If Meta enters prediction markets, it would bring one of the world's largest social audiences into a fast-growing and legally sensitive corner of the internet — potentially reshaping how millions of people engage with forecasting and betting-style features.