A new look at the US labor market suggests that artificial intelligence may already be reshaping who gets hired and who doesn't, with the youngest workers feeling the squeeze first.
According to a Fortune analysis by Nick Lichtenberg, drawing on US payroll data covering more than 730 occupations, employment among workers ages 22 to 25 in jobs highly exposed to AI is now shrinking by 3.8% per year. In other words, the entry-level rungs of careers most likely to overlap with what AI tools can do are getting harder to reach for people just starting out.
The analysis builds on earlier research. Fortune notes that last August, a team led by Stanford economist Erik Brynjolfsson published a detailed study of AI's impact on jobs, an effort that helped frame the current debate over how quickly the technology is filtering into hiring decisions.
That debate is far from settled. The Wall Street Journal, in a piece headlined "Is an AI Jobs Apocalypse Coming? Three Economists Square Off," highlights that experts disagree sharply about how severe and how lasting AI's effect on employment will be. The framing makes clear there is no consensus yet on whether the early signals point to a temporary adjustment or a deeper structural shift.
What ties these threads together is timing. The disruption appears to be landing hardest on younger workers in AI-exposed roles, the very jobs that have traditionally served as on-ramps into long-term careers.
Why it matters: If AI is already trimming the entry-level positions that young people rely on to gain experience, the consequences could ripple through a generation's earnings and career prospects for years to come.